Today's SWAC & FCS Independents Football Games (Oct. 27, 2007)

Photo: Red-shirt Senior RB Jay Peck leads the SWAC in rushing with 155 attempts/706 yards (7 games)/3 TD for 100.9 yards per game average.

by beepbeep

It appears that Grambling State University and Alabama A&M University fans can go ahead and book their reservations today for the SWAC Championship game in Birmingham. My greater disappointments have been the Hornets of Alabama State and the Jackson State Tigers who I thought at the beginning of the season would put up a greater battle for the Eastern Division title. But, when you rush for only 25 yards like Jackson State did last week against the Grambling State defense, all it not well in JSU Tigerland. JSU was beaten 30-20 by Grambling in that contest.

Alabama State was upset by Prairie View A&M 17-6 in Montgomery when their high powered offense became a no-show. The Hornets have a three game streak loosing consecutive games to Prairie View, Jackson State (32-20) and Southern (21-2).

Grambling State is currently ranked #21 in the FCS Top-25 Football Poll by The Sports Network. The MEAC/SWAC Sports Main Street believes that Coach Rod Broadway Tigers are good enough on defense to be ranked in the top ten programs in the FCS. Alabama A&M did receive 211 votes, but did not crack the top 25.

Here is what we can expect today:

Texas Southern (0-7, 0-6) at Grambling State (6-1, 6-0) 2 p.m. (Homecoming) CSTV Tape Delayed

We all need to pray for Steve Wilson's Texas Southern University Tigers. Wilson is currently 4-36 (4th year) and we do not expect the TSU Tigers to pull off an upset at Grambling's homecoming game. Although TSU nearly pulled off the upset at Mississippi Valley last week losing 37-35, this game will not be close. Grambling is just too powerful on defense and offense for TSU to win. The Texas Southern Tigers are giving up 34.6 points per game on average on defense and scoring on average 17.4 points per game. Grambling on the other hand is scoring 27 points per game (average) and holding opponents to 15.4 points per game (average).

However, Steve Wilson's passing offense is good enough to lead the SWAC averaging 233.6. yards per game. But, the Tigers have no running game, residing in last position in the conference with only 338 rushing yards in 196 carries, or 1.7 yard average per carry, 2 rushing touchdown and 48.3 yards rushing per game average. TSU is dead last in conference turnover margin with 9 lost fumbles and 16 interceptions in addition to averaging only averaging 27.9 yards per punt. Inspite of what the stats says, quarterback Tino Edgecombe (118-219-12, 1313 yds., 10 TD) and Brent Wilson (81 car., 237 yds, 2 TD) will be ready for Grambling, which has won the 7 out of the last eight meetings. Grambling won last year's game 33-28 in Houston.
Don't expect a close game this time, but anything can happen.

Prediction: Grambling 45, Texas Southern 14

Mississippi Valley State University (2-5, 2-4) at Prairie View A&M University (4-2, 3-2) 2 p.m. (Homecoming)

Prairie View confidence is soaring after their big road victory last week at Alabama State. I don't expect Henry Frazier's Panthers to ease up on the Valley, although this one will be a battle for one or two quarters. The Valley defense is giving up 37.1 points per game and is last in scoring defense in the SWAC. Prairie View is first in scoring defense limiting their opponents to 10.5 points per game. The Devils have won the last five games in this series including a 14-10 victory in 2006 at Itta Bena. Defense wins games, offense makes homecoming fans happy. No contest even with MVSU defensive coordinator Dennis "Dirt" Winston on the Devils sideline.

Prediction: Prairie View 33, MVSU 9

Alabama A&M University (6-1, 4-1) vs. Alabama State University (4-3, 3-3) in Birmingham, 2:30 p.m.

Its Magic City Classic time and it will take a lot of magic for Alabama State to beat the Bulldogs today. The reality is ASU does not have enough offense to get the job done. AAMU has scored 253 points on the season and ASU only 113. Both defenses are about equal with AAMU opponents scoring 144 points to ASU's opponents 134. But, this is a rivalry game and you can throw the stats out the window. The momentum favors the Bulldogs and we don't expect the Hornets defense to contain the offensive weapons of Alabama A&M.

The AAMU Bulldogs have won the last two meetings and Coach Anthony Jones has a 47-19 record/65-32 overall record in his ninth season as a collegiate head coach. Alabama State Coach Reggie Barlow is 4-3 career as a head coach. RB Jay Peck (155 car, 706 yds, 3 TD) leads the Hornet offense along with WR Fred Ragsdale (15 rec, 204 yards, 3 TD) and QB Chris Mitchell (57-129-8, 736 yds, 6 TD). QB Kelcy Luke (122-216-6, 1510 yds, 17 TD), RB Ulysses Banks (100 car, 620 yds, 5 TD) and WR Thomas Harris (28 rec, 509 yds, 5TD) leads the high powered Bulldog offense.

Prediction: AAMU 41, ASU 24

University of Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-6. 1-4) at Jackson State University (4-3, 4-1) (Homecoming) 3:00 p.m.

Rick Comegy's JSU team was embarrassed last week by Grambling's defense. Expect improvements on the offensive line play and at running back. UAPB has been a disappointment after having a great season last year. LB Tim Turner leads the Golden Lions with 69 total tackles but he will help from his offense for UAPB to pull off the upset. The offense has only scored 98 total points (14.0 ppg average) on the season, which is not good enough to beat the Tigers who are averaging 27 points per game. It will take a few more recruitment seasons for defensive coordinator Monte Coleman (former Washington Redskins star LB) to get the kind of players he needs to make UAPB a consistent winner. The Golden Lions defense is giving up an average of 322.6 yards per game.

More production is needed from JSU running back Erik Haw (98 car, 464 yds, 6 TD) to help quarterback Jimmy Oliver (80-138-5, 1160 yds, 8 TD) and Chris Johnson (17 rec, 373 yds, 2 TD).

Prediction: JSU 33, UAPB 14

Alcorn State - Idle

Southern - Idle

Photo: Grambling Junior QB Brandon Landers leads the SWAC in passing yards with 133 Cmp/237 Att/ 10 INT/12 TD/ 1619 yards/231.3 average per game/56.1 completion percentage.

FCS HBCU Independents

Edward Waters (3-6 NAIA) at Savannah State University (1-6, 1-2 home) 2:00 p.m.

This should be an evenly matched game with lower division Edward Waters College, but its the 117th homecoming of Savannah State University, so anything can happen. The Tigers only victory came at the expense of Johnson C. Smith University (CIAA/Division II), so expect SSU to handle its business today and get victory number 2. Former FAMU offensive coordinator Jimmy Joe is the OC for Savannah State. The Savannah State defense is giving up over 30 points per game while the offense is averaging less than 15 points per game. Interesting!

Prediction: SSU 20, EWC 14

North Carolina Central (6-2 FCS) at Western Kentucky (4-3 FBS-IA Indep.) 7:00 p.m.

Both North Carolina Central University and Western Kentucky University are in NCAA transition in moving up a division. The WKU Hilltoppers are NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision (1-A) provisional and NCCU Eagles are Football Championship Subdivision (1-AA) provisional. That's where the similarities end.

The former Black National Champion Eagles have had their problems this season beating Division II teams like Albany State (L-16-10), provisional FCS Presbyterian (L-34-27) and escaping with wins over over Division II St. Augustine's (W 6-0), Fayetteville State (W 17-0), North Greenville (W 17-14) and Elizabeth City (W 18-10). The Eagles only real test was against 0-24 FCS North Carolina A&T that has not won since 2005 (W 27-22) where the Aggies threw an interception at the 8 yard line with first and goal with 27 seconds remaining in the game to give the Eagles a gift victory. The Eagles were able to defeat their only other FCS opponent, Savannah State (W 30-14).

No doubt, the Eagles have played a bunch of cupcakes and have not shown the championship form from last season, under new head coach Mose Rison.

On the other hand, Western Kentucky has knocked off OVC leader Eastern Kentucky (ranked #17 FCS) on the road (W 26-6) and beat Sun Belt Conference Middle Tennessee (W 20-17) on the road as their signature victories. The Hilltoppers stomped West Virginia Tech at home 87-0 in its only September home appearance and played a paycheck game at the Florida Gators to open their season (L 49-3).

Unfortunately, North Carolina Central has not experienced a team with the playing experience of WKU and will be undermanned going against an 85 scholarship program with a history of dominating on the FCS level. Gateway Conference Indiana State was smashed by WKU on their home field 56-7 last week. Expect more of the same today, just worst for NCCU if the Hilltoppers decide to run up the score.

Prediction: WKU 62, NCCU 3

Eastern Illinois University (5-3, 4-1) at Tennessee State University (3-4, 2-1), 4:00 P.M.

Tennessee State University Tigers will be breaking in true freshman quarterback Calvin McNairl (6-0/210, Henry County H.S., Paris, TN) today, along with Sophomore RB Terrance Wright (71 carr, 290 yds, 4 TD) against FCS #25 ranked Eastern Illinois. TSU was hit with the injury bug last week against Eastern Kentucky University. The Tigers lost starting Junior QB and OVC Passing Leader Antonio Heffner for the season to an ankle injury. Heffner underwent surgery on October 26 to repair damage.

Starting running back Javarris Williams was also injured when he was kicked in the side (ribs) on a block in the EKU game. He has experienced swelling and soreness and Coach Webster indicated that he did not practice this week in preparation for EIU. Williams is not expected to play. Both Heffner and Williams combined for 85.5 percent of TSU offense on the season and had scored 18 of the 23 total touchdowns scored by the team.

Calvin McNairl has played in four previous games before taking over for the injured Heffner and is expected to operate within the TSU scheme without major adjustments. McNairl passed for 6544 yards and 64 TDs in high school and was recruited by Memphis, Middle Tennessee and TSU. Expect TSU to rally around McNairl and Wright and stay focused on the OVC title goal with WR Chris Johnson and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie taking a more active leadership role on the team.

Eastern Illinois is riding high after winning four of their last five games, having lost on the road at Eastern Kentucky (21-28) on October 6th. TSU was defeated by EKU 49-7 last week.